Are Bush's numbers up again? If so, why?

I'm sitting here watching Shields and Brooks on the Lehrer News Hour on PBS.  Brooks just said that Bush's poll numbers are up (five points this week, he claimed), and he credited "policy" for that.  Of course, neither Lehrer nor Shields asked him what he meant by "policy".

When I saw Bush trekking back and forth to hurricane country over the past couple of weeks, I saw that as the White House grabbing camera time from cable TV news operations.  All photo op all the time, is what I thought.

I still think that.  The only policy initiatives I have seen have been Republican public relations efforts to keep the spotlight on Bush.  Bush has been on camera more, never mind that he hasn't accomplished anything and that the agencies controlled by Republicans have continued shoveling federal money to their friends.  But it seems that the mere fact of being on camera has helped.

Will someone who follows polls on a regular basis let us know whether Bush's numbers have improved, and, if so, why they have.

•  ++subject++

  Gallup's latest shows a five-point jump from their previous poll.  Yoink.

  Why?  Perhaps random error, or regression to the mean.  If there's something systematic going on, it'll take more than one poll to have any confidence that it's real.  (That's the fun part about being a talking head -- you're not bound by the rules of rigorous social-scientific inquiry.)

  by cardinal on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:02:39 PM PDT

•  A good resource

  is Polling Report.  I just checked - job approval up 4%.  I have no explanation - it's too depressing to contemplate.

  by RenaRF on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:03:26 PM PDT

  •  I think it's because he is visiting all

    these places, rolling up his sleeves, saying pleasing things that he doesn't mean, and unfortunately many people are very impressionable.

    by lecsmith on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:06:31 PM PDT

    •  Not in too many polls yet...

      polls peak and crest like waves and when thinking about them, it's important to always consider the margin of error.

      It's best to view them as a range - he's not at 45%, per se, but rather his range in recent polling may be something between 40 - 45%, for example.

      Another thing to consider, is the ceiling/floor of polling data - the peaks and valleys so to speak, as well as the trend.

      While Bush may show a short-term jump of 5%, the past several months of polling data may reveal(I'm not certain exactly since it's been a while since of looked at them all) that the President is peaking at 46 or 47 and bottoming out at, say, 38 or 39.  Interestingly enough, you will find that since 9/12/05, Bush has been in a downward spiral, with a few instances when he's been able to bring his numbers up, such as his boost in approval for starting the war.

      Don't worry yet - Bush is down, the GOP is nervous and Americans are increasingly fed up.  And when you only poll approximately 1000-1200 people, there are times when a poll will lean heavy one way or another, which is important when considering who exactly might be feeling better about Bush.  For instance, you should not deduce from a Republican heavy poll that Bush's approval has gone up significantly(even 5 pts) when it's most likely that his approval has improved among his own base, perhaps remarkably, but truthfully only a neglible difference has been made regarding his standing in contrast to the rest of the nation.

      by jaywillie on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:52:56 PM PDT

      •  Or maybe it's because this week...

        ...he hasn't killed hundreds and hundreds of Americans or lost a major Amercan city, or caused a similar calamity. Give him time. He will.

        by daulton on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 11:13:11 PM PDT

  •  it just shows how stupid people can be

    why anyone's opinion of the man changes is beyond me

    who is out there forgiving him?

    by Maccabee on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:55:04 PM PDT

    •  gas prices went down

        all anyone cares about is what effects their little bubble world.

      by Gallatin on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 03:20:23 AM PDT

  •  I'm jumping in the thread.

    Please people are not stupid. The smartest thing that this administration has done was to keep any sacrifices or percieved deprivations from the bulk of the american public. People desperately want to believe that everything is still working as it should.

    I think the public is giving Bush the "benefit of the doubt".

    To denigrate the public would be a major mistake.
    

    by viral on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 11:57:25 PM PDT

•  Maybe he should fly to New Orleans twice a week

  ... for the rest of his presidency and stand around with his sleeves rolled up.

  Uninformed and disinterested Americans seem to like that.

  by Bob Johnson on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:04:14 PM PDT

  •  They've ALWAYS Played to ...

    ...uninformed and disinterested Americans.  It's all they've got.  (Well...that is besides the "civil war for war's sake" advocates on the right.)

    by nehark on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:07:50 PM PDT

•  Most likely...

  sampling error.  And the fact that the media started treating him with credibility again for some inexplicable reason.

  For a few days the media treated the Bush Admin with the disdain of people who were caught lying to them (over Katrina), but with the media today no Administration source can ever lose credibility. Ever.  I mean, they lie to them one day about Katrina and then the next day any Democrat who comes on TV gets asked about whatever talking point the White House is using, nevermind that the "journalist" asking the question already knows that the Bushies lie on that subject.  

  Honestly, I don't know how we ever solve the conundrum because Democrats can lose credibility (like the way they treated everything Al Gore said or did as if it was about politics or the way they dismissed everything Dean said), but no Republican ever gets that treatment no matter how many lies they tell or ethical violations they commit.
  

  by dcg2 on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:04:42 PM PDT

•  I heard that too. I know that

  his approval rating was up to 45% in a CNN Gallup poll announced yesterday. I have not heard other poll results. Gallup often has his approval rating 3-5%points higher than other polls though.

  I think that 5% has to be movement within registered Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. I think there are just some people who want to see Bush in a good light and don't look too closely.'

  To me, it shocking that his approval rating is NOT YET down into the thirties with all the disasters that have happened on his watch, including the ones he instigated himself.

  by lecsmith on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:04:52 PM PDT

  •  What disasters?

    Haven't you heard? It's on the local news. WNBC tonight at 11 PM, just to pick one example, out of many. People are moving back to New Orleans. Slowly. But it's happening. Federal officials have pronounced NO 90% dry. Because like many Americans, all I expect out of my dwelling is that it be dry. Who needs such paltry fripperies as telephone, electrice power, police security, functioning hospitals, open stores, banking, and a place of employment? Just give me someplace that's DRY, dammit. It's really all I need. And I'll take a clothespin, please. To seal my nostrils from the stench of death and mildew.

    Katrina, Rita, just minor blips, now get back to those malls people, and gas up on your way. Consumerism drives the economy, so nothing is more patriotic than buying worthless crap and wasting precious natural resources while doing so. Life is back to normal, the evening news told me so. What a country! Viva George Bush!!!

    by mrblifil on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:34:41 PM PDT

    •  either you are gaslighting me or

      you are being deeply ironic. I'll assume the latter.

      by lecsmith on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:57:58 PM PDT

      •  Good guess.

        by John West on Sat Oct 01, 2005 at 12:56:07 AM PDT

•  I heard it was Gallup and Fox News

  which are both useless. I would imagine he numbers may go up a bit after spending the last 9 days practically living in the New Orleans and the Gulf Coast.

  by Chamonix on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:04:56 PM PDT

•  not really

  rasmussen has him hovering around 45% for weeks now, the best he gets are 45% from fox and gallup
  so i wouldn`t worry to much,the mid 40`s are probably as high as he is going especially now that iraq is getting back in the news.he also probably got some benefit  from roberts getting
  confirmed.i figure in a couple of weeks he`ll be back to 40, when people start to see how bad things are.

  by JOEL1954 on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:09:50 PM PDT

•  Easy

  FEMA actually got involved with Rita before it came ashore, not 5 or whatever days it was before Katrina.  So the preznit gets a bump.

  So now he's going to have to weather these events:

  1. Constitutional referendum in Iraq, yay or nay.
     
  2. A probably icky supreme court battle.
     
  3. Rove and or Libby getting indicted
     
  4. Nasty nasty gas prices, natural or unleaded, this winter.

  by redstatewoes on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:10:43 PM PDT

  •  The Superme Court

    fight may help him.  If the Dems are viewed as too partisan and obstructionist, then that helps Bush.

    Also, natural gas prices are going to be the most expensive ever this winter.  Some people will pay at least $500 more this season!  That will definitley be in the news starting soon.  

    A Rove indictment would be absolutely huge.  Bush would be finished.  I think he has the ability to survive just about anything polticially, even Katrina, but not that.  It's too close to home.  

    by Chidem on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:16:03 PM PDT

•  This is not surprising at all

  As we have seen from numerous polls, it looks as though Bush's floor is about 40%.  These numbers were garnered right after Katrina stuck and the ineptitude of the President was displayed to everyone.  As a result, some angry Republicans voiced their disapproval in the President in a time of rage.  Some of those angry Republicans have since clamed down and gone back to support their leader.  Remember, the reason Bush's numbers have been so low are from defections in his own party.  

  This is not really all that unexpected.  If he gets back into the 50s, then I'm upset.  

  by Chidem on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:12:23 PM PDT

•  Gallup Poll over at CNN

  I read the CNN article yesterday.

  To view the poll in graphic form to each question, click on the Interactive: Bush job approval link (right above the "Your E-Mail Alerts" box).

  My feeling is that Gallup always seems to be high in it's numbers. And don't forget that shit didn't start to really hit the fan until the LAST day of their poll when Delay was indicted. Based on that, I'd drop each of the numbers by at least 1 point - but it's still Gallup.

  by Terre on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:24:26 PM PDT

•  H ewon the spin war

  He flew all over the country and the democrats didn't ball him on it.  Democrats need some attack dogs who would have reminded people how much fuel was wasted everytime bush flew to the gulf coast.

  by TeresaInPa on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:31:28 PM PDT

•  Go to Wal-Mart, Costco, or Home Depot...

  look around...THAT'S America for you. People who think that freedom means driving an hour to stand in line and pay $.45 less than the local store for a widget that's made in China...when I see what this country and it's people are really like, I am often amazed that Bush is the worst we've gotten. I half expect to wake up one day and see that guy who says "Let's get ready to RUMBLLLLLLLLLLLE!" running the country.

  by PBJ Diddy on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:31:53 PM PDT

•  Make the people happy...

  The President, First Lady and Dick Cheney were flying on Air Force One.  George looked at Laura, chuckled and said, You know, I could throw a $1,000.00 bill out of the window right now and make somebody very happy.
  Laura shrugged her shoulders and replied I could throw ten $100.00 bills out of the window and make ten people very happy.  Cheney added, That being the case, I could throw one hundred $10.00 bills out of the window and make a hundred people very happy.
  Hearing their exchange, the pilot rolled his eyes and said to his co-pilot, Such big-shots back there.  Hell, I could throw all of them out of the window and make 56 million people very happy.
  

  by pigpaste on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:36:40 PM PDT

•  Because 45% of Americans

  are just plain ignorant.  Their familiarity with current events is based exclusively on watching FOX news and reading the Sports section of a newspaper.  

  by miriam on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:38:05 PM PDT

  •  No. That is too simple. People are not ignorant.

    They sincerely want to believe in their president.
     And this administration has been very crafty in keeping bad news away from them.

    Everything is teetering but not falling over just yet. It will start to
    crumble a bit this winter. But the major collapse will be in 2009. Is a ny wonder why Cheney, Rice, Jeb Bush et al are backing away from the ever growing, ever stinking dunghill that will be left for the next administration.

    by viral on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 11:19:48 PM PDT

•  Combination of thing

  
  

  • probably he does get a small bounch after a big dip. (natural over reaction, then slight bounch)

  • there is also a not that frequency of polling affect Bush rating. (so the bounch could be a some polling trick along with slight bounch)

  http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

  Poll Frequency and Bush Approval:  they move together. That is to say, when Bush's approval numbers are rising, more polls are taken. Surprise!

  by fugue on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:47:12 PM PDT

•  policy (n.)

  See "public relations policy". See also "policy of deception" (eg lies).

  by changingamerica on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:47:43 PM PDT

•  We really may just have to

  face up to the realization that Americans can be marketed to... that's their best skill actually, their susceptibility to suggestion. Oreos? Hmmmm.... yummy.

  I think basically that's why we've seen what we see in America. We're a bunch of stupid inbred t.v. zombies?

  Just a hunch...

  by Lode Runner on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:51:27 PM PDT

•  Wait until this winter hits

  A few hundred thousand people with no housing other than trailers or ????

  Those same people finding their insurance won't pay seeing BILLIONS going to the companies that bulldozed whatever was left of their home...

  Mail finally catching up with everyone and they find their credit cards are maxed out, government aid is minimal - though it took FOREVER waiting on the phone to even get through to anyone and MONTHS to see ANYTHING....  and they can't even declare bankruptcy to get out of it all....

  The jobless rate going through the  roof - with only a few of theose "underpaid" jobs going to displaced locals.

  Heating oil and natural gas prices going through the roof in a bad winter with federal aid cut - Venezuela's offer is going to look good....

  Oh, and have they gotten ANYTHING out of the strategic reserve yet - none were open in last reports, though refining capacity was still down with  closed refineries.  Don't forget all the shut-down and damaged wells off-shore.

  Iraq is seeing increasing attacks.  Wait until the vote..... and wait for one HUGE and dramatic event....if anything like Tet happens, forget it. Meanwhile the Saudis are pissed about the current mess - THEY don't want anarchy.  WHo are you  going to keep happy?

  The Army can't recruit fast enough.  What happens when Reservists and NG units get hit with a THIRD tour?????

  Wait for the DeLay fallout, Frist, Plame......and on and on and on.........

  Meanwhile the kleptocracy grows.....Doonesbury has Duke in NO - more profitable than Iraq.  Wait for the stories on waste.....the cruise ship is already getting coverage....

  Wait for the body counts - and the reports that numbers were manipulated soon after.... how many are "Missing?"

  And how many kids will still be missing or looking for parents months from now?  

  Texas communities are already getting pissed with FEMA - while LA, MS and AL are still waiting to see SOMEONE, ANYONE a month after Katrina......

  Does anyone see things getting all that much BETTER?

  Oh and wait for the economy to see the fallout...who's going to spend what on Christmas - THE retail season - when they can't afford to heat their house - or when it costs $20 to go to Walmart 70 miles down the interstate.

  And if the housing market bubble finally pops?
  I can't see how those driving 2 hours in LA to get to work are going to afford this.... are we going to see brand new abandoned slums in the fringes of exurbia?  What about mortgage defaults?

  Too many are already skating on the edge - leasing their cars, paying the least they can for a house they just bought and can't even furnish...

  There's a HUGE downside potential coming up and I don't see much to be optimistic about.

  Only real worry is that the ignorant sometimes seek solace in totalitarian regimes when their world falls apart.... but I can't see that happening here... it's too clear WHO is responsible for what's happened.

  JMO

  by xrepub on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 08:58:33 PM PDT

•  Not a big deal

  People need to consider something about Bush and his handlers:

  Common belief is that "Karl Rove is a genius" (as are other people who have managed Bush's career).

  Right.

  A genius who barely got his incumbent war President re-elected in a tie with Woodrow Wilson for the narrowest re-election, and only after spending ridiculously record sums and pulling out all stops.

  What Karl Rove and Bush's handlers do is not make Bush look good; they try to make everyone else look bad.

  Their attempts to make Bush look good are extremely clumsy.  While they've slapped themselves on the back for slick moves like Top Gun moments and scheduling New York City for the Republican Convention or superimposing Bush as the next head on Mr. Rushmore, not only has the immediate novelty faded because it's the same tired trick that lost its luster a couple years ago, but a lot of those P.R. moves have backfired or have become so transparent that they either elicit a yawn or some dawning recognition among even the densest brains that they're fugazi.

  Imagine if Bush had ever had a real handler who was good at image-making and selling their guy to the public?  A James Carville or other like that?  Because the Rove formula is to insulate Bush in a cocoon and so carefully manage everything because in his dark heart of hearts, Rove knows he's a fuck-up who can't make someone look good - he was only granted the evil ability to malign others.  In the immortal words of OldManMurray he's really a bitter glass half empty guy - because his glass is half full of piss.

  But whatever - as I've always said, a pot is only as good as the clay from which it's made.  Bush is pretty rough clay, even for someone with Carville's talents to work with.

  by cappy on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 09:20:38 PM PDT

•  Gas

  The kind we put in our cars, and the kind the Freepers and their ilk put in words and say or email to their neighbors.

  Haven't you seen those emails floating around? The ones that blame the Mayor and Blanco, that distort through minimization the role of FEMA? That fail to mention there's any such thing as the NRP? That don't even acknowledge the hypocrisy of saying FEMA doesn't do this or that, even though FEMA did this and that during Hurricane Rita?

  People love that anecdotal email bullshit AND they want to believe...there's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place...

  We're a nation of Dorothy Gales.

  by MissAnneThrope on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 10:06:10 PM PDT

•  flypaper

  Simply stanching the bleeding (via numerous photo ops showing him "handling" the hurricanes' aftermath) buoys him back up a bit.  But he's still way under 50%, which means people won't cut him any slack for his next fuckup, and that from now on every new fuckup will adhere to him with greater and greater sticking power.  

  From here on, he's the flypaper president.  

  by Bob Love on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 10:13:16 PM PDT

•  Because people really don't want to think that the

  president of the United States is a fuck-up, a jerk, a juvenile "what me worry" wooden dummy facade of a leader.

  Even I don't want to believe it. But I do.

  by viral on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 10:54:11 PM PDT

•  Check the SUSA 50 state governor polling....

  
  That pretty much tells the story.  Within the Deep South the Republican media effort after Katrina, hitting people while they felt extremely vulnerable and resorting to their fundamental views and prejudices, drove all governors' ratings to their state partisan split after Katrina hit.  The effect is visible to a lesser degree in other parts of the South.

  Bush probably pulled back up the 10-15% he'd dropped in the region over the year relative to his election percentage.  All the sad-ass Republican governors of the region regained support to a similar extent.  The victim of of the game was Kathy Blanco, who dropped to the level of the 2004 vote for Kerry in Louisiana (~42%, iirc).

  So a transient national 'bump' for Bush of 2-3% can be expected.   Some pollsters probably miss it within their m.o.e., others figure the Deep South is too screwed up to poll properly and just poll the rest of the country, and yet others just haven't polled during this time window of perceptible national effect.  Gallup and Opinion Dynamics probably went out to find as much effect as possible...after all, they want to keep their contracts with the Republican Party.

  I don't have much trouble with Rove playing this game.  It's bad for Kathy Blanco, unfortunately, for the time being  I feel pretty sure this deliberate hyperpolarization will backfire on Rove- this sort thing makes ratings hit their polling ceiling, but it also tends to remove the operative polling floor in the process and has the polling ceiling fall as well after that peak.  (Bush's 'handling terrorism' ratings do this after each major attack, i.e. on New York, on Madrid, and on London.)  The Bush people did this to get the AEI those "enterprise zones" that fill their wet dreams.  But there is a price to be paid in support collapsing to a  signficantly lower range and no chance of recovering the support lost.

  So, imho there is a Bush bump but Fox and Gallup overstate it by their nominal error margin.  It should result in Bush support breaking down in a disproportionate way in a few weeks or months.

  by killjoy on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 11:23:05 PM PDT

•  maybe here's why?

  
  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/30/32114/8547

  by shpilk on Fri Sep 30, 2005 at 11:56:43 PM PDT